Revisiting the Philippine Political Crisis

By Ronald Meinardus

Some observers of Philippine affairs view political crises in this country as a permanent phenomenon. Just the other day, I joined a group of foreign correspondents for a meeting with a visiting American reporter who has covered the Philippines since the late 60ies. While this journalist, who came out with a book entitled Philippines in Crisis, acknowledged the present political turmoil, he hastened to add it was much in line with what he had become accustomed to writing about for so many years.

While I am not an expert on the history of Philippine domestic politics, I agree that political stability has not been the rule but rather the exception since I moved to Manila in early 2002. Back then, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (or GMA, as she is commonly referred to here) had just replaced Jopseph Estrada. At that time, many Filipinos expressed relief that Estrada, who they perceived as corrupt, incompetent and an embarrassment, had been junked from office well ahead of the end of his constitutional term.

To understand the underlying factors of the crisis besetting the Arroyo presidency, one must consider the ramifications of the ouster of her predecessor. Estrada and his political allies have still not accepted the 2001 fait accompli and continue to see themselves as the legitimate rulers. Arguably, the best chance Estrada and his supporters had for revenge was the 2004 general elections, when the former President managed to persuade his friend and actor colleague Fernando Poe Jr. to step into the political arena. Due to his unparalleled popularity, Poe’s victory should have been a foregone conclusion. Had it not been for the presidential ambitions of an oppositionist senator who effectively split the anti-GMA-vote, Mrs. Arroyo wouldn’t have won.

As in 2001, the Estrada camp once more refused to concede defeat. Despite all surveys, exit polls and the final congressional canvass showing Mrs. Arroyo as the winner, the opposition still cried foul and accused her of manipulating the outcome. From the first day of her second term, a legitimacy crisis has hounded Mrs. Arroyo’s presidency. The crisis entered a new phase this June when recordings of wiretapped telephone conversations surfaced with voices sounding like those of the president and a senior official of the Commission on Elections. The public widely regarded the audio tapes as proof that Mrs. Arroyo had sought Commissioner Garcilliano’s assistance in rigging the outcome of the vote.

Politically the president reached a low point on July 8, when in the course of a few hours powerful former supporters turned their back on her and called for her resignation or threatened her with impeachment. In those hectic times, the talk in Manila was not whether GMA would survive; the issue was whether she would hold on for hours, days or – for the most generous observers - weeks.

To the surprise of many, the besieged president fought back. Today, half a year later, most observers agree Mrs. Arroyo’s position has stabilized. They attribute the president’s political survival to strategic coalition building (and her politicking) as well as a general trend in Philippine society that favors the political status quo.

Importantly, in the crucial moments of June 2005, the military remained neutral, as did the influential Catholic Church. In Philippine politics these two institutions are crucial, and both played a decisive role in the popular uprisings of 1986 and 2001. The support from local government officials has also been important for the president’s political survival. Looking at the results of the 2004 polls this is no surprise, as more than 80 percent of all available seats went to local candidates of the presidential coalition. Presidential patronage politics ensures support in the provinces; it shows that local autonomy provides a political powerbase for the central government.

The president has also profited from the shortcomings of her opponents. Their lack of unity is probably the most harmful. At no time did the opposition go beyond being a mere single-purpose movement to remove the president from office. Made up of a politically peculiar alliance of Estrada-supporters, the Communist Party of the Philippines and its front organizations and members of the so called middle forces, whose home is the political center, this loose alliance could not field a figurehead to challenge the president and serve as an alternative. This void is particularly damaging in an environment where politics revolves around personalities and is not based on political parties and their ideologies.

Future historians will probably come to the conclusion that the most important factor benefiting the president was the political apathy of the masses. While survey after survey has documented that a majority of Filipinos are unhappy with the incumbent and wouldn’t mind seeing her quit today rather than tomorrow, only a small minority is willing to go to the streets and join protest rallies. “People power has become an impotent weapon for ousting a widely reviled President,” said a leading columnist in September shortly after presidential allies in the House of Representatives effectively squashed the impeachment process.

A few days ago, former Elections Commissioner Virgillio Garcilliano, who together with the president may be called the main actor of this political drama, emerged after disappearing mysteriously when the scandal of the controversial wiretapped recordings came to light half a year ago. Expect Garcilliano’s disappearance and the contentious audio tapes to dominate Philippine politics in the coming weeks and months. Meanwhile, the president and her allies express confidence the country has entered the final episode of the crisis and all will come to a happy ending soon.
This is wishful thinking. On more than one occasion, Mrs. Arroyo’s foes have pledged never to give up until she is removed from office.

Dr. Ronald Meinardus was the former Resident Representative of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in the Philippines and a commentator on Asian affairs. Send comments to liberal@philippines.fnst.org