How the Internet Changes the Media World

By Ronald Meinardus

Hardly any other industry has developed as dynamically in recent years as has the media sector. The impact of the so-called digital revolution is particularly evident in the way we communicate. Sending and receiving digitized data has become faster and faster, at the same time the costs have fallen dramatically. An end to this trend is not in sight. At the heart of all this is the Internet. According to Jakob Nielsen, a leading consultant on web-design usability, the Internet is growing at an annual rate of 18 percent. It now has one billion users, of whom 36 percent are in Asia (24 percent in Europe and 23 percent in North America). Nielsen believes the second billion will be added by 2015. He also predicts that most of the new users will be in Asia.

"People all over the world are experiencing unprecedented levels of empowerment," Nielsen explains. "Being able to do things is why the Web has grown so fast, and will continue to grow for years to come." This assessment has enormous implications, economically but also socially and politically.

While traditionally the role of the media, be it newspapers, radio or television, has been to inform and to entertain, we are witnessing a shift to a new paradigm in which participation and interactivity have become key elements. The Weblog _ or Blog _ may be called the incarnation of this evolving modern do-it-yourself media universe.

The expansion of the "Blogosphere" is mind-boggling. According to Technorati.com, a popular search engine for Bloggers, the total number of Blogs has grown from 8 million in March 2005 to over 24 million today. Most Blog writers come from the United States, where the personal online journals originated more than half a decade ago. But Blogging has long become a universal phenomenon. Throughout the world, Blogs have opened avenues of free and uncensored expression. Not surprisingly, they are a thorn in the flesh of authoritarian rulers. The political impact of Blogs on regimes like Iran, China or Singapore has not yet been assessed systematically. However, studies in the United States indicate that the political force of Weblogs is considerable. "Real political power and influence is now being wielded through online communities comprising millions of people," says the New Politics Institute, a think tank. "Trends suggest that this is only the beginning. Indeed, what we have seen to date are the outlines of a new politics."

The new fad, and a logical follow-up to the conventional text-centered Weblogs, are Audioblogs or Podcasts. The term, which the New Oxford American Dictionary has recently declared the word of the year 2005, is a combination of "broadcasting" and IPod, the immensely popular audio player produced by Apple. Basically, Podcasts are radio shows that you can download from the Internet and listen to whenever and wherever you wish. Anyone with a computer, a microphone, editing software and an Internet connection can produce and publish them. According to a recent count, some 20,000 Podcasts are available on the World Wide Web today. As with Weblogs, the great majority of Podcasts are produced and hosted in North America. Expect the growth of this genre to be less dynamic than the expansion of Weblogs; the technicalities of producing a Podcast and getting it online might be prohibitive for many.

Still, Blogs and Podcasts have much in common: "The beauty of new technologies being born on the web is that they put us in charge," writes Michael Calore in the online version of Wired magazine. "The gap between the creator and the consumer is shrinking as we generate our own content and trade ideas between ourselves freely."

This approach poses a major challenge for traditional media companies who are increasingly having a hard time attracting the young generation. Instead of reading newspapers or arranging their schedules around TV-shows, more and more young people in advanced societies are flocking to so called online communities. These Internet-based services allow members to create an own homepage or Blog, publish photographs and upload music. They provide digital meeting places and help create networks. In South Korea, which due to its nearly universal broadband connectivity is a trend setter in digital communications, the online community Cyworld has 15 million members, and over 90 percent of Internet users in their twenties have subscribed. Similar online communities with huge membership pools of young people have sprung up in Scandinavia and the United States. The Swedish online community Lunarstorm includes 90 percent of the country’s high school students. In a newspaper interview, media consultant Ola Ahlavarsson said that "young people no longer accept a flow of information from above. They trust what they hear from friends on their network."

This said, we may assume that once today’s youngsters grow up their media consumption will be different than that of their parents today. In a recent report, the Germany-based Zukunftsinstut (Future Institute), a think tank that specializes in trying to predict what lies ahead, foresees "a new age of personal media" in which digital communities control programming and "narrowcasting replaces broadcasting." The Institute predicts a proliferation of special programs targeted at narrow audiences. In this new media order television, as we know it today, will loose its dominance. Digital technologies will increasingly put consumers in control of their entertainment and information needs. Blogs, Podcasts and comparable new participatory media formats are expected to play a growing role. This, the forecast concludes, will all happen at the expense of the traditional media.

As much as I find the scenario intellectually inspiring, I have my reservations. First, the scenario focuses solely on the technologically advanced societies. Unfortunately, the reality in our world is more complex. As the digital revolution gains speed, the digital divide keeps growing. Second, it is not the first time we hear of the nearing demise of the traditional media. However, on more than one occasion, newspapers, radio and television have proven they are capable of adapting _ and surviving. Finally, in spite of all the excitement, the new digital media formats have still to prove they are truly mass media. My own enthusiasm for Blogging was dampened a little bit when I read a survey according to which in Germany there are today more Bloggers than there are Blog readers. For now, at least, many digital grass-roots communicators are producing content for which there seems to be little if any demand.

Dr. Ronald Meinardus was the former Resident Representative of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in the Philippines and will leave Manila late September for a new posting in the Middle East. He writes a blog at www.myliberaltimes.com